The gamble backfires: How Israel misread Iran and exposed its existential fault lines

By Zakariyah Zainab

For over a century, Iran’s vast energy resources and strategic location made it a prime target for Western domination.

The British Empire birthed the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later BP) in 1908, extracting colossal profits while leaving Iran impoverished.

In 1953, the CIA orchestrated a coup to overthrow Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who had dared to nationalize Iran’s oil, reinstalling the brutal Shah to safeguard Western interests.

The plan was clear: Iran would serve as a compliant pillar of control over West Asia, ensuring Israel’s security and expanding Western hegemony. 

Then came 1979. 

The Islamic Revolution shattered decades of imperial designs, not just in the region but across the globe. The US and its allies responded with an eight-year imposed war, backing the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in a brutal campaign to crush Iran’s newfound sovereignty.

When that too failed, the West turned to economic strangulation, disinformation, and covert operations, all aimed at preventing Iran from becoming a model of defiance for other nations. 

This is the backdrop against which the recent Israeli-American war of aggression must be understood. 

The Al-Aqsa Storm and unraveling of old plans

The October 7 operation was an earthquake, upending the calculations of regional and global powers. For Israel, it was an opportunity to eliminate its most formidable adversary once and for all. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a man clinging to power amid corruption charges and an extremist coalition, saw perpetual war as his salvation.

First, Gaza. Then the occupied West Bank. Then Lebanon, where Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s top leadership and carried out one of the largest terrorist attacks known as the pager incident and sought to reshape the political landscape to a more compliant one. 

Syria, already fractured by decades of West-engineered war, became the next battleground. Turkey unleashed its own proxies, the Syrian Army deserted their posts, Assad fled, Iran was forced to withdraw and Syria fell.

With US forces in Iraq, Israeli bases in Azerbaijan, and NATO’s presence in Turkey, Iran found itself encircled. The battle was no longer at its borders; it was at its doorstep. 

Iran understood it was next.

The US gambit and Iran’s lightning response

After President Ebrahim Raeisi’s shocking death, a new administration took office in Tehran and indirect negotiations resumed in Oman, offering a glimmer of détente. But on June 13, just days before the sixth round of talks, Israel launched a US-backed blitz: assassinating top-ranking generals, nuclear scientists, and ordinary civilians. They tested Iran’s resolve.

The plan was simple: decapitate Iran’s military leadership, cripple its response, and buy time for a full-scale assault.  The US and Western alliance defended Israel and praised the attack as a successful preemptive strike. But it wasn't. It failed. 

Within 12 hours, every assassinated Iranian general was replaced. Tehran’s retaliation was swift and devastating. Missiles rained down on sensitive and strategic Israeli positions, and despite the heavy Israeli censorship, we all witnessed how the Iranian missiles turned the occupied territories into scenes reminiscent of Gaza.

The world watched in awe as the Islamic Republic of Iran, standing alone but united and resilient, with its homegrown weapons, struck back with amazing might and precision. 

When the US intervened by deploying stealth bombers to strike nuclear facilities, it was not a surprise to anyone. It was a US war in the first place; Israel was only a proxy arm.

When the decision-makers in Washington realized their client regime was about to be obliterated, they stepped in directly. This direct intervention showed only one thing: desperation on the part of both Israel and the United States.

But even then, Iran proved resilient. The Fordo facility remains intact, as confirmed by the US intelligence assessment. Nuclear materials had already been relocated to a safer location. And Tehran severed ties with the IAEA, denying the West any visibility into its program. 

The illusion of regime change

The plot of overthrowing the system (nizaam) in Iran has been in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and this proved to be Israel’s second miscalculation. Israel not only believed in creating internal chaos, but it banked on it.

For years, Tel Aviv had invested in Farsi-language propaganda networks, fomenting anti-government sentiment to fracture Iran’s unity. Instead, the opposite happened. 

The Iranian people, despite minor political differences, rallied behind their armed forces and the country’s flag. Citizens reported Mossad sleeper cells, leading to thousands of arrests.

The dream of regime change evaporated in the face of national solidarity. 

As the dust of war drums settles, and the halt in Zionist aggression holds for now, the question is who had more to gain in this round. What did Iran gain?

The end of Israeli invincibility:

The myth of Israel’s invincibility has been shattered. Iranian missiles proved they can reach any target, sending a clear message: the settler-colonial entity is no longer untouchable or safe. 

A unified nation:

Iran demonstrated that when sovereignty is threatened, internal divisions fade. The people stood with their military, their leadership, and their revolution. 

Global realignment:

Russia and China, recognizing that Iran’s fall would make them next, are now more likely to deliver advanced weaponry – air defenses, fighter jets, and more. 

Resistance Axis continues to grow:

From Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen to Iraq, the Axis of Resistance is stronger than ever. The lies that Hezbollah is finished or that it didn't do enough must now be put in the waste bin. The axis is united and operating as one towards a shared objective.

Iran’s devastating retaliatory strike on a US military base in Qatar was not theatrics. It was a clear warning: any nation hosting or facilitating American aggression will pay a price. 

What is Iran's aim now? Based on the strategy Iran has employed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, it would seem Iran is playing the long game.

The acceptance of a ceasefire, unilaterally declared by the embattled Israeli regime, is a strategy. Iran emerged unbroken. The US and Israel, despite their firepower, failed to achieve their objectives: no regime change, no dismantled nuclear program, no broken resistance. 

Instead, they revealed their weaknesses. The US had to step in directly, a sign of desperation, not strength. Israel, once seen as the region’s unbeatable power, now faces an existential question: What happens when deterrence fails? 

Iran, meanwhile, is engaged in a long game. It knows legacy isn’t forged in a single battle but through endurance. The region is being remade. Where we go next is still unwritten. But one thing is certain: the rules have changed. 

Zakariyah Zainab is a journalist and geopolitical analyst focusing on West Asian and African affairs.

(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV)

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